EE5311 Assignment 2 (AY23/24 Semester 2)
This assignment counts toward 25% assessment for the course. This assignment is due for
submission by 26 April 2024.
The assignment problem below is open-ended and may admit many possible solutions. Bearing in mind that the assignment provides you an opportunity to practice what you learn
in this course, it is recommended that you think about how probabilistic programming
techniques you learn in the course might help you solve the problem.
You may discuss the assignment problem and the solution methodologies with other students
and the instructor, but you are not allowed to share code or project report with other students.
The Canvas discussion forum is a great place for discussions and/or clarification regarding this
assignment.
¾ Caution
Any copying or plagiarism will hamper your own learning, and may also result
in disciplinary action against you.
Problem Statement
You work for a government organization that regulates fishing in coastal waters to ensure long
term sustainability. The allowed fish harvest per year is reviewed every 5 years, and a stock
(fish population) assessment is undertaken before the next review.
Based on historical data, the Salmon harvest and stock estimates are as shown in Table 1.
The estimates are known to be noisy and the estimated accuracy is also shown in the
table.
If the Salmon stock drops below 100,000, experts have advised that there is a high chance of
population collapse due to over-fishing. Based on the historical data, your task is to recommend
the maximum allowable harvest for the next 5 year period, such that the Salmon stock at the
end of the 5 years will not drop below 100,000 with a 90% confidence level.
Table 1: Historical Salmon harvest and stock data
Harvest Stock at end of 5 years
20,000 264,410 ± 10,000
50,000 257,132 ± 10,000
80,000 251,466 ± 10,000
1
Harvest Stock at end of 5 years
110,000 218,014 ± 10,000
140,000 199,986 ± 10,000
You may assume that the simple fisheries model presented in week 6 in class (see presentation
slides for details) is consistent with Salmon population dynamics in your country. However,
the maximum supportable population and reproduction rate for Salmon are not accurately
known for your coastal waters. Estimate these parameters from the data, and quantify the
uncertainty of your estimates and recommendation.
Submission requirements
(25 marks)
• Brief report (page limit: 3 pages) in pdf format, clearly outlining the method used for
your recommendation, and your recommendation on allowable Salmon harvest. Explain
how you obtained uncertainty estimates for the parameters and recommendation, and
justify any assumptions made.
• Well-commented runnable code yielding the results to support your recommendation.
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